Pre-Throne Speech Ramblings

So all of us here in government-town (aka Ottawa) are waiting with bated breath for the Speech from the Throne. The rest of the country is probably doing its collective best to ignore it entirely, "prime-time" or no. But for the political junkies of my acquaintance, this kind of thing is high-grade catnip. The predictions are flying fast and furious. What will Stephen Harper put in the speech to embarrass the Liberals? And will Stéphane Dion rise to the bait? Will there be an election?

Harper is probably the only person who really wants an election, and I'm not too sure about him. The opposition is in disarray, especially the Liberals (the only 'real' opposition in terms of parties with a chance to win the election). But what Harper really wants is a majority, and he hasn't got the poll numbers for that -- not yet. Of course, if he can force the opposition into letting him govern as if he had a majority, then he's got the best of both worlds.

And it's all up to Dion. I gotta say, I feel sorry for the guy. He's gotten nothing but criticism since he won the leadership, and he's being forced into an untenable position. Today's resignation of his Quebec lieutenant certainly doesn't help. If he brings the government down, he fears he'll end up losing seats. If he doesn't, he looks like he's licking Harper's boots, which can't be good for his long-term election prospects.

I confess, selfishly, that I want this government to fall. I want to see Harper's bluff called. But it probably wouldn't be a good strategic move on Dion's part, and I doubt an election would do progressive folks any good.

It's just that I don't think leaving Harper in power is going to be good for progressives, either. Or for the country. Certainly not in the short term and probably not in the long term.

For all the insistence that Canadians don't want an election,* they didn't want (or at least didn't elect) a Harper majority, either. And I can't shake the feeling that they would at least respect Dion and the Liberals for standing up for their principles instead of cringing and strategizing.

So come on, Stéphane! Courage! Once more unto the breach and all that.

* Probably true -- for a democratic country, we spend a lot of time hoping we won't have an election and then staying home when one happens. **
** Eligible voters of Ontario, I'm looking at you!