Interesting Times

When rumours of a possible coalition government started circulating, I didn't think it would ever actually happen. This is Canada, after all, and although we like to talk big, we don't generally take such dramatic steps.

But it's becoming increasingly clear to me that Harper has misread the whole situation, and has pushed the opposition into a corner so that they have no choice but to fight back.

As soon as the Conservatives decided to eliminate funding for politicial parties, the opposition was going to have to do something. The move would have completely crippled them, particularly as there was no corresponding move to increase the individual donation limit so that they could actually do some meaningful fundraising from their supporters. (Just in case anyone out there is worried about "subsidising" political parties, let me remind you that the $1.95 per vote was to make up for the fact that parties could no longer take more than $5000 from each supporter. Harper's already lowered that limit to $1000 from each supporter. I'm sure you can see how that makes it hard to fundraise.)

But the economic update contained a lot of other objectionable elements. No hint of any kind of stimulus package, for example, which is what the opposition parties have chosen to hang their hats on. Now, I'm no economist, but it seems to me that, in a financial crisis like this one, being seen to be doing something is pretty important. If the global markets see that Canada isn't responding (and doing nasty things to the public service* doesn't actually count as responding), they're hardly going to have increased confidence in Canada. A stimulus package works because it shows that we're doing something, so investors gain confidence simply because we're doing something.

Now Harper's withdrawn the whole issue of the funding to political parties. They're going to get to keep their $1.95 a vote. But even though he may have backed down on this one, the opposition can't very well say "oh, okay then. You can continue to govern."

And here's why: if they back down now, it becomes obvious that they were just doing it because of their own self-interest. They'll look selfish. So they can't back down, even if that is the straw that broke the camel's back and set them off in the first place.

If Harper really wants them to back down, he's going to have to come up with some kind of economic package. And if he does that, he's letting them dictate the agenda, and this minority parliament will be very different from the last one.

Harper's really created a situation where it's impossible for the opposition to back down.

It's going to be a very interesting week here in Ottawa.

It's worth remembering that "may you live in interesting times" is a curse, not a blessing.

* And I think I need to comment that taking away public servants' right to strike is pretty nasty. And mean-spirited. And unecessary.